Word Economic Forum 2003

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0 height="100%"><tr> <td valign="top" width=200 BGCOLOR="#003333" TEXT="#F7F7FF" background="040d4c00dduajq.png"> <div> <TABLE BORDER="0" CELLPADDING="2" CELLSPACING="0" WIDTH="95" BORDERCOLORLIGHT="#C0C0C0" BORDERCOLORDARK="#808080" FRAME="BOX" RULES="ALL" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" > <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 46 WIDTH="91"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="46" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="91" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></tD> </tR> </TABLE></div> <bR> <div> <B>World</B></div> <div> <B>Economic</B></div> <div> <B>Forum</B></div> <div> <A HREF="http://www.sparko.com/news" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.sparko.com/news"><U><B><IMG SRC="7e765550.png" border=0 width="101" height="85" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" BGCOLOR="#FFFBF0" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#003333" FACE="Arial" ><B>Mitch Manzella's Website</B></FONT>     |     <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Mitch Manzellas Website"><U>home</U></A></div> <div> <B>Word Economic Forum 2003</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id248.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="OReilly Threatens Dissenters"><U>O'Reilly Threatens Dissenters</U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id233.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Bill OReilly Loses It"><U>Bill O'Reilly Loses It</U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id262.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Reactions to War"><U>Reactions to War</U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id267.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="The 14 Characteristics of Fascism"><U>The 14 Characteristics of Fascism</U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id272.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="George W. Bushs Resume"><U>George W. Bush's Resume</U></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id286.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Operation Iraqi Freedom: By The Numbers"><U>Operation Iraqi Freedom: By The Numbers</U></A></div> <div> Word Economic Forum 2003</div> <bR> <div> A journalist attended the World Economic Forum and wrote her friends an email about the experience. </div> <div> Two weeks later, that email is on the Web.  The Truth, direct from the World Economic Forum.</div> <bR> <div> At the end of a week of "unfettered, class A hobnobbing," Laurie Garrett sat down to write about the experience to a "handful" of friends. She composed a chatty 2000-word email about the issues on the minds of the world's self-proclaimed movers and shakers. The email is basically a list of hot topics -- terrorism and trade, American unilateralism versus anti-Americanism, the leaders (China) and laggards (the US) in global economic growth -- bookended by some brief scene-setting and personal observations. </div> <bR> <div> <B>THIS IS A MUST READ</B></div> <bR> <div> Hi Guys.</div> <bR> <div> OK, hard to believe, but true. Yours truely has been hobnobbing with the</div> <div> ruling class.</div> <bR> <div> I spent a week in Davos, Switzerland at the World Economic Forum. I was</div> <div> awarded a special pass which allowed me full access to not only the</div> <div> entire official meeting, but also private dinners with the likes the</div> <div> head of the Saudi Secret Police, presidents of various insundry</div> <div> countries, your Fortune 500 CEOS and the leaders of the most important</div> <div> NGOs in the world. This was not typical press access. It was full-on,</div> <div> unfettered, class A hobnobbing.</div> <bR> <div> Davos, I discovered, is a breathtakingly beautiful spot, unlike anything</div> <div> I'd ever experienced. Nestled high in the Swiss Alps, it's a three hours</div> <div> train ride from Zurich that finds you climbing steadily through</div> <div> snow-laden mountains that bring to mind Heidi and Audrey Hepburn (as in</div> <div> the opening scenes of "Charade"). The EXTREMELY powerful arrive by</div> <div> helicopter. The moderately powerful take the first class train. The NGOs</div> <div> and we mere mortals reach heaven via coach train or a conference bus.</div> <div> Once in Europe's bit of heaven conferees are scattered in hotels that</div> <div> range from B&B to ultra luxury 5-stars, all of which are located along</div> <div> one of only three streets that bisect the idyllic village of some 13,000</div> <div> permanent residents.</div> <bR> <div> Local Davos folks are fanatic about skiing, and the slopes are literally</div> <div> a 5-15 minute bus ride away, depending on which astounding downhill you</div> <div> care to try. I don't know how, so rather than come home in a full body</div> <div> cast I merely watched.</div> <bR> <div> This sweet little chalet village was during the WEF packed with about</div> <div> 3000 delegates and press, some 1000 Swiss police, another 400 Swiss</div> <div> soldiers, numerous tanks and armored personnel carriers, gigantic rolls</div> <div> of coiled barbed wire that gracefully cascaded down snow-covered</div> <div> hillsides, missile launchers and assorted other tools of the national</div> <div> security trade. The security precautions did not, of course, stop there.</div> <div> Every single person who planned to enter the conference site had special</div> <div> electronic badges which, upon being swiped across a reading pad,</div> <div> produced a computer screen filled color portrait of the attendee, along</div> <div> with his/her vital statistics. These were swiped and scrutinized by</div> <div> soldiers and police every few minutes -- any time one passed through a</div> <div> door, basically. The whole system was connected to handheld wireless</div> <div> communication devices made by HP, which were issued to all VIPs. I got</div> <div> one. Very cool, except when they crashed. Which, of course, they did</div> <div> frequently. These devices supplied every imagineable piece of</div> <div> information one could want about the conference, your fellow delegates,</div> <div> Davos, the world news, etc. And they were emailing devices --- all</div> <div> emails being monitored, of course, by Swiss cops.</div> <bR> <div> Antiglobalization folks didn't stand a chance. Nor did Al Qaeda. After</div> <div> all, if someone managed to take out Davos during WEF week the world</div> <div> would basically lose a fair chunk of its ruling and governing class</div> <div> POOF, just like that. So security was the name of the game. Metal</div> <div> detectors, X-ray machines, shivering soldiers standing in blizzards,</div> <div> etc.</div> <bR> <div> Overall, here is what I learned about the state of our world:</div> <bR> <div> - I was in a dinner with heads of Saudi and German FBI, plus the</div> <div> foreign minister of Afghanistan. They all said that at its peak Al Qaeda</div> <div> had 70,000 members. Only 10% of them were trained in terrorism -- the</div> <div> rest were military recruits. Of that 7000, they say all but about 200</div> <div> are dead or in jail.</div> <bR> <div> - But Al Qaeda, they say, is like a brand which has been heavily</div> <div> franchised. And nobody knows how many unofficial franchises have been</div> <div> spawned since 9/11.</div> <bR> <div> - The global economy is in very very very very bad shape. Last year</div> <div> when WEF met here in New York all I heard was, "Yeah, it's bad, but</div> <div> recovery is right around the corner". This year "recovery" was a word</div> <div> never uttered. Fear was palpable -- fear of enormous fiscal hysteria.</div> <div> The watchwords were "deflation", "long term stagnation" and "collapse of</div> <div> the dollar". All of this is without war.</div> <bR> <div> - If the U.S. unilaterally goes to war, and it is anything short of a</div> <div> quick surgical strike (lasting less than 30 days), the economists were</div> <div> all predicting extreme economic gloom: falling dollar value, rising spot</div> <div> market oil prices, the Fed pushing interest rates down towards zero with</div> <div> resulting increase in national debt, severe trouble in all countries</div> <div> whose currency is guaranteed agains the dollar (which is just about</div> <div> everybody except the EU), a near cessation of all development and</div> <div> humanitarian programs for poor countries. Very few economists or</div> <div> ministers of finance predicted the world getting out of that economic</div> <div> funk for minimally five-10 years, once the downward spiral ensues.</div> <bR> <div> - Not surprisingly, the business community was in no mood to hear about</div> <div> a war in Iraq. Except for diehard American Republicans, a few Brit</div> <div> Tories and some Middle East folks the WEF was in a foul, angry</div> <div> anti-American mood. Last year the WEF was a lovefest for America. This</div> <div> year the mood was so ugly that it reminded me of what it felt like to be</div> <div> an American overseas in the Reagan years. The rich -- whether they are</div> <div> French or Chinese or just about anybody -- are livid about the Iraq</div> <div> crisis primarily because they believe it will sink their financial</div> <div> fortunes.</div> <bR> <div> - Plenty are also infuriated because they disagree on policy grounds. I</div> <div> learned a great deal. It goes FAR beyond the sorts of questions one</div> <div> hears raised by demonstrators and in UN debates. For example:</div> <bR> <div> - If Al Qaeda is down to merely 200 terrorists cadres and a</div> <div> handful of wannabe franchises, what's all the fuss?</div> <bR> <div> - The Middle East situation has never been worse. All hope for a</div> <div> settlement between Israel and Palestine seems to have evaporated. The</div> <div> energy should be focused on placing painful financial pressure on all</div> <div> sides in that fight, forcing them to the negotiating table. Otherwise,</div> <div> the ME may well explode. The war in Iraq is at best a distraction from</div> <div> that core issue, at worst may aggravate it. Jordan's Queen Rania spoke</div> <div> of the "desperate search for hope".</div> <bR> <div> - Serious Islamic leaders (e.g. the King of Jordan, the Prime</div> <div> Minster of Malaysia, the Grand Mufti of Bosnia) believe that the Islamic</div> <div> world must recapture the glory days of 12-13th C Islam. That means</div> <div> finding tolerance and building great education institutions and places</div> <div> of learning. The King was passionate on the subject. It also means</div> <div> freedom of movement and speech within and among the Islamic nations.</div> <div> And, most importantly to the WEF, it means flourishing free trade and</div> <div> support for entrepeneurs with minimal state regulation. (However, there</div> <div> were also several Middle East respresentatives who argued precisely the</div> <div> opposite. They believe bringing down Saddam Hussein and then pushing the</div> <div> Israel/Palestine issue could actually result in a Golden Age for Arab</div> <div> Islam.)</div> <bR> <div> - US unilateralism is seen as arrogant, bullyish. If the U.S.</div> <div> cannot behave in partnership with its allies -- especially the Europeans</div> <div> -- it risks not only political alliance but BUSINESS, as well. Company</div> <div> leaders argued that they would rather not have to deal with US</div> <div> government attitudes about all sorts of multilateral treaties (climate</div> <div> change, intellectual property, rights of children, etc.) -- it's easier</div> <div> to just do business in countries whose governments agree with yours. And</div> <div> it's cheaper, in the long run, because the regulatory envornments match.</div> <div> War against Iraq is seen as just another example of the unilateralism.</div> <bR> <div> - For a minority of the participants there was another layer of</div> <div> AntiAmericanism that focused on moralisms and religion. I often heard</div> <div> delegates complain that the US "opposes the rights of children", because</div> <div> we block all treaties and UN efforts that would support sex education</div> <div> and condom access for children and teens. They spoke of sex education as</div> <div> a "right". Similarly, there was a decidedly mixed feeling about</div> <div> Ashcroft, who addressed the conference. I attended a small lunch with</div> <div> Ashcroft, and observed Ralph Reed and other prominent Christian</div> <div> fundamentalists working the room and bowing their heads before eating.</div> <div> The rest of the world's elite finds this American Christian behavior at</div> <div> least as uncomfortable as it does Moslem or Hindu fundamentalist</div> <div> behavior. They find it awkward every time a US representative refers to</div> <div> "faith-based" programs. It's different from how it makes non-Christian</div> <div> Americans feel -- these folks experience it as downright embarrassing.</div> <bR> <div> - When Colin Powell gave the speech of his life, trying to win</div> <div> over the nonAmerican delegates, the sharpest attack on his comments came</div> <div> not from Amnesty International or some Islamic representative -- it came</div> <div> from the head of the largest bank in the Netherlands!</div> <bR> <div> I learned that the only economy about which there is much enthusiasm is</div> <div> China, which was responsible for 77% of the global GDP growth in 2002.</div> <div> But the honcho of the Bank of China, Zhu Min, said that fantastic growth</div> <div> could slow to a crawl if China cannot solve its rural/urban problem.</div> <div> Currently 400 million Chinese are urbanites, and their average income is</div> <div> 16 times that of the 900 million rural residents. Zhu argued China must</div> <div> urbanize nearly a billion people in ten years!</div> <bR> <div> I learned that the US economy is the primary drag on the global economy,</div> <div> and only a handful of nations have sufficient internal growth to thrive</div> <div> when the US is stagnating.</div> <bR> <div> The WEF was overwhelmed by talk of security, with fears of terrorism,</div> <div> computer and copyright theft, assassination and global instability</div> <div> dominating almost every discussion.</div> <bR> <div> I learned from American security and military speakers that, "We need</div> <div> to attack Iraq not to punish it for what it might have, but</div> <div> preemptively, as part of a global war. Iraq is just one piece of a</div> <div> campaign that will last years, taking out states, cleansing the planet."</div> <bR> <div> The mood was very grim. Almost no parties, little fun. If it hadn't been</div> <div> for the South Africans -- party animals every one of them -- I'd never</div> <div> have danced. Thankfully, the South Africans staged a helluva party, with</div> <div> Jimmy Dludlu's band rocking until 3am and Stellenbosch wines pouring</div> <div> freely, glass after glass after glass....</div> <bR> <div> These WEF folks are freaked out. They see very bad economics ahead, war,</div> <div> and more terrorism. About 10% of the sessions were about terrorism, and</div> <div> it's heavy stuff. One session costed out what another 9/11-type attack</div> <div> would do to global markets, predicting a far, far worse impact due to</div> <div> the "second hit" effect -- a second hit that would prove all the world's</div> <div> post-9/11 security efforts had failed. Another costed out in detail what</div> <div> this, or that, war scenario</div> <div> Would do to spot oil prices. Russian speakers argued that "failed</div> <div> nations" were spawning terrorists --- code for saying, "we hate</div> <div> Chechnya". Entire sessions were devoted to arguing which poses the</div> <div> greater asymmetric threat: nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.</div> <bR> <div> Finally, who are these guys? I actually enjoyed a lot of my</div> <div> conversations, and found many of the leaders and rich quite charming and</div> <div> remarkably candid. Some dressed elegantly, no matter how bitter cold and</div> <div> snowy it was, but most seemed quite happy in ski clothes or casual</div> <div> attire. Women wearing pants was perfectly acceptable, and the elite is</div> <div> sufficiently</div> <div> Multicultural that even the suit and tie lacks a sense of dominance.</div> <div> Watching Bill Clinton address the conference while sitting in the hotel</div> <div> room of the President of Mozambique -- we were viewing it on closed</div> <div> circuit TV -- I got juicy blow-by=blow analysis of US foreign policy</div> <div> from a remarkably candid head of state. A day spent with Bill Gates</div> <div> turned out to be fascinating and fun. I found the CEO of Heinekin</div> <div> hilarious, and George Soros proved quite earnest about confronting AIDS.</div> <div> Vicente Fox -- who I had breakfast with -- proved sexy and smart like a</div> <div> --- well, a fox. David Stern (Chair of the NBA) ran up and gave me a</div> <div> hug.</div> <bR> <div> The world isn't run by a clever cabal. It's run by about 5,000</div> <div> bickering, sometimes charming, usually arrogant, mostly male people who</div> <div> are accustomed to living in either phenomenal wealth, or great personal</div> <div> power. A few have both. Many of them turn out to be remarkably naive --</div> <div> especially about science and technology. All of them are financially</div> <div> wise, though their ranks have thinned due to unwise tech-stock</div> <div> investing. They pay close heed to politics, though most would be happy</div> <div> if the global political system behaved far more rationally -- better for</div> <div> the bottom line. They work very hard, attending sessions from dawn to</div> <div> nearly midnight, but expect the standards of intelligence and analysis</div> <div> to be the best available in the entire world. They are impatient. They</div> <div> have a hard time reconciling long term issues (global wearming, AIDS</div> <div> pandemic, resource scarcity) with their daily bottomline foci. They are</div> <div> comfortable working across languages, cultures and gender, though white</div> <div> caucasian males still outnumber all other categories. They adore hi-tech</div> <div> gadgets and are glued to their cell phones.</div> <bR> <div> Welcome to Earth: meet the leaders.</div> <bR> <div> Ciao,</div> <div> Laurie </div> <bR> <div> More Discussion <A HREF="http://research.yale.edu/lawmeme/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=938" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://research.yale.edu/lawmeme/modules"><U>http://research.yale.edu/lawmeme/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=938</U></A></div> <bR> <div> Taken from <A HREF="http://www.topica.com/lists/psychohistory/read/message.html?mid=1711891071&sort=d&start=4389" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.topica.com/lists/psychohistor"><U>http://www.topica.com/lists/psychohistory/read/message.html?mid=1711891071&sort=d&start=4389</U></A></div> </td> </tr></table></body>